10:00 GMT-4

Aviva Stadium, Dublin

RC Toulon

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About the match

Leinster's third Champions Cup semi at the Aviva in four years and they've been imperious at home in Europe — the record speaks for itself. Toulon arrive with a forward pack built to bully and a back row that knows how to slow Leinster ball at the breakdown, the bit nobody else solves. Without Sexton the Leinster attack still hums through Prendergast and Gibson-Park, but the territory game gets harder if Biggar pegs them back to their own 22. Toulon's coup-de-grace is the maul; Leinster have leaked tries off it in pool stages. Aviva crowd, slight rain forecast, four-points-or-less feels right. Leinster favourites but it's tighter than the bookmakers think.